The people you’re woofing at may think you really mean it. The US/NATO command may be woofing just to get more ships and planes funded, but woofing can go badly wrong. Anaconda Plan to blockade China, remember that it’s budget season (because it’s always budget season at the Pentagon), and nobody who matters could really imagine that reviving the Anaconda Plan, which didn’t even work very well against the Confederacy, is gonna work against the PRC and its long-range anti-ship missiles. So when you read some hyperventilating wonk enthusing over a 21st c. The whole idea was absurd, because that war would have gone nuclear in a half hour, and nobody in power wanted that. Looking back, it was never going to happen. That’s a lesson you learned the hard way if, like me, you’re old enough to remember the NATO/Warsaw Pact war that was always just about to happen. So when you read US analyses of the Taiwan situation, you have to remind yourself that this isn’t necessarily about a real war. What’s scarce is plausible reasons to buy them. The US Navy always, always wants more ships. And even if none of them do, it’s good for business, because most war scares are about funding. They just want to keep those trash fires burning, hoping one of them will blaze up big, like a gender-reveal wildfire. Of course, no one who matters in the defense business wants total war with China.

It’s like tracking an inept arsonist by satellite image: “Oh, there he goes again…the idiot started a trash fire next to a concrete wall.” It’s a full-time job, keeping track of the US/NATO campaign to start a fire somewhere on China’s borders. Subscribe to the Radio War Nerd podcast hosted by Gary Brecher & Mark Ames for podcasts, newsletters and more!

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